EV calculator
Strip the vig from a two-way market, then see what win rate each pick'em entry needs and what your edge is worth.
1. De-vig a market
Scales both sides by the total. The usual default.
2. What is a win rate worth?
Verified PrizePicks Help Center: Payouts, 2026-10-19 + 2 more official pages. Checked 2026-11-10. These are the Minimum Guarantee rates. A Leaderboard Win can pay a different amount, but PrizePicks pays whichever is higher and they do not stack.
3. Slip, voids, and boosts
Exact math for a 6-pick Flex Play. A void or tie removes that pick and the entry is paid from the same verified table at the remaining size (Power stays Power, Flex stays Flex, Standard stays Standard). If there is no verified table for what is left, the entry is treated as a refund. Official Demon/Goblin mix tables are not verified, so only a multiplier you type is used — marked as yours.
No voids. Paid from this entry's verified table. PrizePicks Help Center: Payouts, 2026-10-19 + 2 more official pages. Checked 2026-11-10.
Boost / special
Our feed cannot see app-only promos, and we do not scrape them. Type the boost, Stat Slice, special line, or discount the app shows. EV is recomputed against the win rate above and this entry type. Last-used values stay on this device only.
Break-even table
The per-pick win rate where an entry breaks even, assuming independent picks at the app's published payouts. Entry types with no verified schedule show no break-even.
| Entry | Payouts (correct → return) | Break-even / pick | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-pick Power Play | 2→3x | 57.74% | Verified |
| 3-pick Power Play | 3→6x | 55.03% | Verified |
| 4-pick Power Play | 4→10x | 56.23% | Verified |
| 5-pick Power Play | 5→20x | 54.93% | Verified |
| 6-pick Power Play | 6→37.5x | 54.66% | Verified |
| 2-pick Flex Play | 2→2x, 1→0.5x | 61.80% | Verified |
| 3-pick Flex Play | 3→3x, 2→1x | 57.74% | Verified |
| 4-pick Flex Play | 4→6x, 3→1.5x | 55.03% | Verified |
| 5-pick Flex Play | 5→10x, 4→2x, 3→0.4x | 54.25% | Verified |
| 6-pick Flex Play | 6→25x, 5→2x, 4→0.4x | 54.21% | Verified |
PrizePicks: PrizePicks Help Center: Payouts (2026-10-19). Checked 2026-11-10. Payouts change and can vary by promotion and state. See App rules for sources, quotes and what could not be verified.
Break-even by app
Per-leg hit rate where a 2–6 pick entry breaks even, using each app's current verified public payout table (the type with the lowest break-even at that size). Unverified tables are marked and not used for EV or for default AI slip sizes. Defaults: Underdog 2-pick, other apps 3-pick, unless a different size is clearly lower (at least 0.6 points) — that size is tagged best value.
- 2-pick Power Play57.7%
- 3-pick Power Play55.0%
- 4-pick Flex Play55.0%
- 5-pick Flex Play54.3%
- 6-pick Flex Play54.2%
- 2-pick Standard53.5%
- 3-pick Standard53.6%
- 4-pick Standard53.7%
- 5-pick Flex54.7%
- 6-pick Flex53.8%
- 2-pick All-In57.7%
- 3-pick All-In55.0%
- 4-pick All-In56.2%
- 5-pick All-In54.9%
- 6-pick All-In54.1%
- 2-pick Maxunverified
- 3-pick Maxunverified
- 4-pick Maxunverified
- 5-pick Maxunverified
- 6-pick Maxunverified
- 2-pick Flex Play61.8%
- 3-pick Flex Play57.7%
- 4-pick Flex Play55.0%
- 5-pick Flex Play54.3%
- 6-pick Flex Play54.6%
- 2-pick Pick Setunverified
- 3-pick Pick Setunverified
- 4-pick Pick Setunverified
- 5-pick Pick Setunverified
- 6-pick Pick Setunverified
- 2-pick All-Inunverified
- 3-pick All-Inunverified
- 4-pick All-Inunverified
- 5-pick All-Inunverified
- 6-pick All-Inunverified
| App | 2-pick | 3-pick | 4-pick | 5-pick | 6-pick | Default | Best value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PrizePicks | 57.7% Power Play | 55.0% Power Play | 55.0% Flex Play | 54.3% Flex Play | 54.2% Flex Play | 3-pick | 6-pick Flex Play 54.2% |
| Underdog | 53.5% Standard | 53.6% Standard | 53.7% Standard | 54.7% Flex | 53.8% Flex | 2-pick | default |
| Dabble | 57.7% All-In | 55.0% All-In | 56.2% All-In | 54.9% All-In | 54.1% All-In | 3-pick | 6-pick All-In 54.1% |
| Sleeper | — unverified | — unverified | — unverified | — unverified | — unverified | — | — |
| Betr | 61.8% Flex Play | 57.7% Flex Play | 55.0% Flex Play | 54.3% Flex Play | 54.6% Flex Play | 3-pick | 5-pick Flex Play 54.3% |
| Pick6 | — unverified | — unverified | — unverified | — unverified | — unverified | — | — |
| ParlayPlay | — unverified | — unverified | — unverified | — unverified | — unverified | — | — |
Checked 2026-11-10. Payouts change and can vary by promotion and state. See App rules for sources and what could not be verified.